There’s no doubt that the climate is changing and there’s no doubt that it’s locked-in to change a lot more. We are a very long way off doing what we need to do. We need to AT LEAST stabilise atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (418ppm – way higher than pre-industrial levels and guaranteed to cause further problems even at that level). But we are not stabilising atmospheric CO2, we are emitting record amounts worldwide every year. And are these record amounts of emissions falling? No, global emissions are still rising. Falling emissions, even dramatically falling emissions, would still be raising the CO2 level year-on-year, increasing global temperature rise, but emissions – ADDITIONAL CO2 – are not even heading in the right direction. So not only is the level of atmospheric CO2 increasing, the RATE OF CHANGE of atmospheric CO2 is increasing. It used to rise by 1ppm per year, then it was 2ppm per year, now it’s 3ppm per year. This is so far off what needs to be happening. And don’t fall for any “what can anything measured in ppm do?” – it is well established that CO2 at that concentration has a greenhouse effect (and methane at much lower concentrations). There’s a daft argument that “human beings can’t affect the planet” – we extract approx 11½ billion litres of oil a day, most of which is burned. Plus coal and natural gas. Over the years that’s a LOT.
And as CO2 concentration rises, the planet warms. And there is a lag effect on that, meaning the planet will continue to warm for decades after CO2 stabilises or even falls (if we ever achieve that). And there is an even longer lag effect, probably of centuries, with melting ice ie sea-level rise. And there are potential accelerating feedback loops but we won’t know for sure till they are confirmed to be happening. There may be decelerating feedback loops eg reduced albedo effect but I wouldn’t hang all our hopes on that. We don’t magically get saved.
Also, atmospheric methane, the second most significant greenhouse gas, has gone up by a record amount in the last year recorded. Nobody knows why but it is concerning. It could be increased release from industry, possibly fracking, but it could be increased release from thawing permafrost, which could be an accelerating feedback loop. I’m not saying it is – I massively hope it’s not – but atmospheric methane HAS gone up by a record amount – again the rate of change is in the wrong direction, not just the change.
The likely effects of increased global temperature are well-known – sea-level rise, crop failure on a large scale, parts of the world simply too hot to live, stronger storms, wildfires etc. Don’t kid yourself – it’ll be bad if we don’t tackle this. And it will affect everyone on our highly interconnected planet. Producing sparkling wines in the North of England is gonna be little compensation in the long-term.
We have to tackle this. We have to leave a livable world to future generations (and today’s younger people). This is really happening – it will be real human beings (and other creatures) who will suffer if we don’t tackle this. It will be difficult but we can avoid the worst. We have to – nothing matters more.
I am not offering the solution – for the simple reason that I do not have it. The solution will involve cooperation on a global scale I know that. It’s much easier to identify a problem than to come up with a solution but this is all I can do. No point pretending otherwise. I do have some thoughts on what the solution looks like and I’ll get more into that but I don’t have all the answers. But I do know enough to know that we have to tackle this.
I know it’s not a very cheerful message but head-in-the-sand won’t help. We won’t tackle this problem unless we are fully understanding of the seriousness of it. Talk of “catastrophising” young people is garbage – worrying about a coming problem is not as bad as the problem itself would be – not even close. We have to be aware – it’s ludicrous to suggest otherwise.
We CAN do this – but it will be hard.
Thanks for reading this far. ❤
David Stakes 